feat(event): score TDT mention links with precision and recall

[seonghobae]

Summary

#45 remains preferred merge (0007) but is only locally blocked: hourly re-drafted it; this cycle marked it ready again. Exact-head required checks were cancelled by the draft and are re-queuing. No qualifying independent APPROVE (CodeRabbit COMMENTED only). #38 must not leapfrog #45.

Next no-0008 gap: TDT link-detection precision/recall in existing event_core (does not recreate TDT/CHRONOS crates, does not wait on #48/#49/#53/#65, and does not allocate 0008).

• refuse_event_link_as_instance / refuse_event_link_as_transition never promote a detected pair
• EventLinkPair refuses self-links and normalizes pair order
• event_link_precision and event_link_recall fail closed on empty sets
• Computed RMSE of known link targets is lower under calibrated scores than under an always-link detector

Test plan

• RED: link_detection_contract failed with E0432/E0599
• cargo test -p event_core --offline
• cargo clippy -p event_core --all-targets --offline -- -D warnings
• cargo test --workspace --offline
• python3 scripts/validate_documentation.py and check_docstrings.py
• exact-head required Checks (do not treat queued evidence as passed)

Do not self-approve or merge. Prefer merge #45 when exact-head required checks and a qualifying independent APPROVE exist. Do not allocate 0008.

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Review details

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Configuration used: Organization UI

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Run ID: 99e13ce0-1f3a-4fb0-be0f-d9aa02f88f73

📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 7c29e7c and 633d41c.

📒 Files selected for processing (12)

• CHANGELOG.md
• DOCUMENTATION.md
• crates/event_core/src/error.rs
• crates/event_core/src/lib.rs
• crates/event_core/src/link.rs
• crates/event_core/tests/link_detection_contract.rs
• docs/TRACEABILITY.md
• docs/adr/0016-tdt-chronos-event-intelligence-boundary.md
• docs/adr/README.md
• docs/research/event-link-detection-calibration.md
• docs/research/standards-and-literature.md
• docs/validation/temporal-event-foundation.md

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[seonghobae]

Reviewed and integrated current protected main without force-push.

Current head: 633d41c

Verification at this exact head:

• cargo fmt --all -- --check
• cargo test -p event_core --offline (5 unit, crate contract, 5 link-detection, 4 mention/instance, doctests)
• cargo clippy -p event_core --all-targets --offline -- -D warnings
• python3 scripts/check_workspace_contract.py
• python3 scripts/check_docstrings.py
• python3 scripts/validate_documentation.py
• git diff --check

The link contract remains fail-closed: self-links and empty metric denominators reject, mention links cannot become instances or state transitions, and precision/recall are computed from normalized known-truth pairs. Please run protected current-head Checks and obtain the required independent approval before normal merge.