Add startup financial modeling template document

STARTUP_FINANCIAL_MODEL_TEMPLATE.md

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+# Startup Financial Modeling (3–5 Year Framework)
+
+This template is designed for early-stage startups that need:
+- Board-ready operating plans
+- Investor-friendly fundraising forecasts
+- Scenario-driven cash/runway management
+
+---
+
+## 1) Model Architecture
+
+Build one integrated model with three linked tabs (or sections):
+1. **Assumptions** (single source of truth)
+2. **Operating Model** (revenue, costs, hiring)
+3. **Financial Statements** (P&L, cash flow, runway, metrics)
+
+### Time Horizon
+- **Years 1–2:** monthly periods
+- **Year 3:** quarterly periods
+- **Years 4–5:** annual periods
+
+---
+
+## 2) Revenue Model (Cohort-Based)
+
+Use customer cohorts to make retention/churn explicit.
+
+### Core Formulas
+- **MRR(t)** = Σ over cohorts \[customers retained in month *t* × ARPU(t)\]
+- **ARR(t)** = MRR(t) × 12
+
+### Required Inputs
+- New customers acquired per month
+- Retention curve by cohort age (month 1, 2, …)
+- ARPU by plan/tier
+- Expansion, contraction, and churn assumptions
+- Payment terms (monthly/annual prepay mix)
+
+### SaaS Mechanics (Recommended Layout)
+For each month:
+- Beginning MRR
+- + New MRR
+- + Expansion MRR
+- − Contraction MRR
+- − Churned MRR
+- = Ending MRR
+
+Then:
+- **Net New MRR** = Ending MRR − Beginning MRR
+- **MRR Growth %** = Net New MRR / Beginning MRR
+
+---
+
+## 3) Cost Structure
+
+Split costs into fixed vs. variable and direct vs. indirect.
+
+### COGS (variable-heavy)
+- Hosting/infrastructure
+- Payment processing
+- Variable support costs
+- Per-customer third-party tooling
+
+### Operating Expense Buckets
+- **Sales & Marketing (S&M):** paid acquisition, sales comp, tools
+- **R&D:** engineering, product, design, dev infra
+- **G&A:** leadership, legal, finance, HR, insurance, facilities
+
+### Useful Modeling Conventions
+- COGS as % of revenue (with scale-based improvement)
+- CAC by channel and blended CAC
+- Department budgets tied to headcount + tooling + programs
+- Add a 10–20% contingency line for unexpected spend
+
+---
+
+## 4) Headcount Plan
+
+Create a role-based hiring schedule by month.
+
+### Inputs
+- Start-of-period headcount by role
+- Planned hires by month and role
+- Attrition assumption (annual)
+- Ramp-to-productivity assumption (especially sales)
+
+### Fully-Loaded Compensation
+- **Fully loaded cost** = cash compensation × load factor
+- Typical load factor: **1.30–1.40** (benefits, taxes, overhead)
+
+### Typical Early-Stage SaaS Mix (Guide)
+- Engineering: 40–50%
+- Sales & Marketing: 25–35%
+- G&A: 10–15%
+- Customer Success/Support: 5–10%
+
+---
+
+## 5) Cash Flow and Runway
+
+Revenue and cash are not the same; model timing explicitly.
+
+### Monthly Cash Waterfall
+- Beginning cash
+- + Cash inflows (collections, financing)
+- − Cash outflows (opex, capex, debt service)
+- = Ending cash
+
+### Burn and Runway
+- **Net burn** = cash outflows − cash inflows (excluding financing)
+- **Runway (months)** = current cash / average monthly net burn
+
+If ending cash drops below zero:
+- Flag funding gap month
+- Size required raise to reach next milestone + 6-month buffer
+
+---
+
+## 6) Core Startup Metrics
+
+### Growth Metrics
+- MRR / ARR and growth rates (MoM, YoY)
+- Net revenue retention (NRR)
+- Gross revenue retention (GRR)
+
+### Unit Economics
+- CAC = S&M acquisition spend / new customers
+- LTV = ARPU × gross margin % × customer lifetime
+- CAC payback period (months)
+- LTV/CAC ratio
+
+### Efficiency Metrics
+- Burn multiple = net burn / net new ARR
+- Magic number = annualized net new ARR / prior-quarter S&M spend
+- Rule of 40 = growth % + EBITDA margin %
+
+---
+
+## 7) Scenario Planning (P10 / P50 / P90)
+
+Model three scenarios using the same structure with different assumptions.
+
+### Conservative (P10)
+- Slower acquisition
+- Lower conversion / pricing
+- Higher churn
+- Longer sales cycles
+
+### Base (P50)
+- Most likely operating assumptions
+- Primary board plan
+
+### Optimistic (P90)
+- Faster GTM execution
+- Better retention and expansion
+- Improved CAC efficiency
+
+### Stress Variables (Typical Ranges)
+- Acquisition: ±30%
+- Churn: ±20%
+- ACV/ARPU: ±15%
+- CAC: ±25%
+
+---
+
+## 8) Fundraising Layer
+
+Integrate financing rounds directly into cash projections.
+
+### Dilution Math
+- Post-money valuation = pre-money + new capital
+- Dilution % = new capital / post-money
+
+### Use of Funds Template
+- Product/R&D
+- GTM (Sales & Marketing)
+- G&A/operations
+- Working capital buffer
+
+Plan to raise enough to:
+1. Reach the next meaningful value-creation milestone
+2. Maintain a minimum 6-month post-milestone cash buffer
+
+---
+
+## 9) Validation Checklist
+
+Before sharing the model:
+- Growth assumptions are achievable for stage and motion
+- Gross margin matches business model norms
+- CAC payback and LTV/CAC are plausible
+- Headcount and revenue-per-employee trajectory are realistic
+- Burn multiple trends toward stronger efficiency over time
+- Cash runway is resilient in conservative scenario
+
+---
+
+## 10) Quick Build Sequence
+
+1. Define business model and pricing logic
+2. Build cohort-based revenue engine
+3. Add cost model (COGS + opex buckets)
+4. Add role-level hiring plan
+5. Build cash waterfall and runway alerts
+6. Layer key SaaS/startup efficiency metrics
+7. Clone assumptions for P10/P50/P90 scenarios
+8. Add fundraising rounds and dilution outputs
+9. Run sanity checks and peer benchmark review
+
+---
+
+## Recommended Worksheet Tabs (Spreadsheet)
+
+1. `Assumptions`
+2. `Cohorts_Revenue`
+3. `Headcount`
+4. `Opex_COGS`
+5. `P&L`
+6. `CashFlow_Runway`
+7. `Metrics`
+8. `Scenarios_P10_P50_P90`
+9. `Fundraising_Dilution`
+
+This structure keeps assumptions auditable and allows rapid scenario updates for board and investor conversations.