[belongs in hypatia] OutcomeTracker should record the dispatcher's predicate verdict, not success/failure #647

Filed here because this session could not add hyperpolymath/hypatia. Please transfer it there; the change is in Hypatia.

What

Since #616 and #622, scripts/dispatch-runner.sh computes a predicate verdict for each fix: verified, no_op, incomplete, unverified or failed. It writes that verdict, with before_hits/after_hits, to the outcome JSONL.

When it calls mix hypatia.record_outcome, though, it still collapses the verdict to success/failure/false_positive (record_outcome() → hypatia_outcome). Hypatia's OutcomeTracker.record_outcome/2 therefore still learns from exit codes. The standards ultraplan's Wave 0 item "True outcomes" says it should accept verified only from a predicate or rescan.

Proposed change

• Hypatia: accept a verdict argument in mix hypatia.record_outcome / OutcomeTracker.record_outcome/2. Treat only verified as positive evidence, no_op as neutral, and unverified as no evidence. Mark the historical log unverified rather than deleting it.
• gitbot-fleet: pass the verdict through (one argument in hypatia_record_outcome), keeping the collapsed field for older Hypatia versions.

Evidence

• E1 (docs/experiments/E1-fix-outcome-replay-2026-10-20.adoc): 0 of 130 replayed "success" rows were confirmed by their recipe's own predicate.
• Current wiring: scripts/dispatch-runner.sh, functions record_outcome and hypatia_record_outcome.