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fardin97/README.md

Mustafa Fardin

I build machine-learning and simulation systems for decisions that move people and goods. My work connects rare-event prediction, sequential decision policies, agent-based modelling, GIS, and applied statistics with careful validation and explicit operational tradeoffs.

I am a Transportation Engineering PhD candidate at Penn State, open to ML/AI engineering, research science, simulation, scientific programming, and applied-statistics roles.

Selected work

  • Hierarchical rare-event ML — improved rare-outcome average precision by 27.6% over a direct ExtraTrees baseline by modeling the response structure, with repeated internal validation and a semantic negative control.
  • Equity-aware contextual bandits — a parcel-locker recommendation simulator that predicts out-of-home delivery propensity and chooses feasible access points from daily activity chains while balancing service value, pickup burden, and equity constraints.
  • Parcel-locker freight ABM — a six-context NYC/Seattle model connecting synthetic e-commerce demand, OSM routing, MOVES4-derived emissions factors, a separately implemented private AERMOD stage, demographic exposure equity, and exact inference over a 2,700-run factorial experiment.
  • Parcel-locker AnyLogic GIS — a last-mile digital twin that exposes the tradeoff between fewer failed deliveries and more personal pickup travel under higher locker adoption.
  • Transit and health equity — a multi-city GIS and statistical pipeline connecting GTFS-based healthcare access, neighborhood inequality, poverty-group contrasts, and CDC PLACES outcomes.
  • Bayesian spatiotemporal truck-crash modeling — sparse spatial adjacency, ST-ACF/STARMA diagnostics, and negative-binomial CAR–AR models in brms and Stan.
  • City-scale OSM evacuation ABM — a collaborative project with Alex An, PhD, combining congestion-aware routing, spreading hazards, pedestrian behavior states, and scenario aggregation over OpenStreetMap-derived networks.
  • Traffic-sign detection with YOLOv4-tiny — a brittle notebook experiment rebuilt as deterministic preprocessing, validated configuration, tests, provenance, and an honest model card.

Working range

Python · R · SQL · Java · scikit-learn · GeoPandas · OSMnx · NetworkX · PySAL · brms / Stan · AnyLogic · MATSim

LinkedIn · Email

Pinned Loading

  1. city-evacuation-osm-abm city-evacuation-osm-abm Public

    City-scale hazard evacuation ABM over OpenStreetMap networks with congestion-aware routing and behavioral state transitions.

    Python

  2. equity-aware-contextual-bandits equity-aware-contextual-bandits Public

    Parcel-locker recommendation policy simulator using contextual bandits, calibrated behavior models, and equity-aware rewards.

    Jupyter Notebook

  3. hierarchical-rare-event-ml hierarchical-rare-event-ml Public

    Leakage-controlled hierarchical ML for rare alternative-delivery choice, with repeated validation and negative controls.

    Jupyter Notebook

  4. parcel-locker-freight-abm parcel-locker-freight-abm Public

    Multi-city freight ABM linking e-commerce demand, OSM routing, MOVES-derived emissions, private AERMOD integration, and factorial equity inference.

    Python

  5. spatiotemporal-truck-crash-modeling spatiotemporal-truck-crash-modeling Public

    Bayesian GIS workflow for heavy-truck crash counts: PySAL topology, spatial diagnostics, STARMA, and negative-binomial CAR/AR models.

    Python

  6. transit-health-equity transit-health-equity Public

    Multi-city GIS and statistical modeling of transit-to-healthcare access, neighborhood inequality, and CDC PLACES health outcomes.

    Python