ShortfallEvents and LOLEv Implementation - #106
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This PR adds a new
ShortfallEventsresult specification that records shortfall events directly during simulation.We define an "adequacy event" as a set of event-periods that are contiguous at the highest available temporal resolution [1].
Events are recorded separately for each Monte Carlo sample at both system and regional levels.
ShortfallResultdoes not retain sufficient information to reconstruct individual events. At the same time, obtaining this information fromShortfallSamplesResultrequires storing and postprocessing the fullregions × timestamps × samplesshortfall tensor.ShortfallEventsinstead stores event boundaries and accumulated unserved energy, avoiding that dense tensor, which provides a more compact representation for event analysis, particularly when shortfalls are sparse.The implementation adds the following metrics at both system and regional levels:
With the implementation of
LOLEv, all metrics defined in [2] are now included in PRAS.Additionally, this PR extends
PRASFilesto support JSON export ofShortfallEventsResult. This includes both aggregate event-level metrics and optionally raw event records at the system and regional levels.[1] Stephen et al. (2022), "Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric"
[2] NERC (2018), "Probabilistic Adequacy and Measures Technical Reference Report"