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Add Fracast-0 BOOM results - #181

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ztxtech:add-fracast-0-boom
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ztxtech wants to merge 1 commit into
DataDog:mainfrom
ztxtech:add-fracast-0-boom

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@ztxtech ztxtech commented Sep 30, 2026

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Summary

  • Adds complete BOOM results for Fracast-0, an 85,001-parameter probabilistic time-series foundation model.
  • Evaluates all 7,413 dataset/term configurations and 623,602 forecasts with zero task failures.
  • Regenerates the full benchmark leaderboard and shifted-geometric-mean breakdown tables using the existing BOOM utility code.

Results

Metric Value Ordinal rank
Scaled MASE 0.723 12 / 24
Scaled CRPS 0.434 11 / 24
Mean per-dataset rank 11.808 12 / 24

The run uses pinned dataset revision 69325b544c45ff0d6c43c7a99c49a6601a01725b and evaluator revision 1527c41589189ad1bc3883ed4d3d97b3e5a3b47c. Full per-configuration results and provenance are available in the Fracast-0 repository.

Disclosure

Datadog/BOOM is part of the complete Fracast-0 pretraining recipe, so this result is in-corpus rather than zero-shot. I am happy to move it to a separate pretrained/in-corpus section if that is preferable for the leaderboard.

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