diff --git a/packages/cli/test/release-plan.test.ts b/packages/cli/test/release-plan.test.ts
index 3fecdb71..fde2ae64 100644
--- a/packages/cli/test/release-plan.test.ts
+++ b/packages/cli/test/release-plan.test.ts
@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@ import path from "node:path";
 import { fileURLToPath } from "node:url";
 import { describe, expect, it } from "vitest";
 import {
+  isNotRealVersion,
   isSecurityRelease,
   type Pkg,
   readPackages,
@@ -122,7 +123,8 @@ describe("a package that joined the fixed group before its first version PR (#23
       name === NEW ? forNew : ["0.8.0", released];
 
   it("is left out of the release: nothing publishes it at the group's current version", async () => {
-    for (const onNpmNew of [[], ["0.0.0-placeholder.0"]]) {
+    // Nothing; the owner's placeholder; and npm's own `0.0.0-stage` next to it (2026-11-15).
+    for (const onNpmNew of [[], ["0.0.0-placeholder.0"], ["0.0.0-placeholder.0", "0.0.0-stage"]]) {
       const pkgs = at("0.9.0");
       expect(pkgs.map((p) => p.name)).toContain(NEW);
       const r = await releaseGroup(
@@ -168,6 +170,25 @@ describe("a package that joined the fixed group before its first version PR (#23
     expect(missing.map((p) => p.name)).toContain(NEW);
   });
 
+  it("counts no 0.0.0-* prerelease as a release, and every other version as one", () => {
+    for (const v of ["0.0.0-placeholder.0", "0.0.0-stage", "0.0.0-anything.1"])
+      expect(isNotRealVersion(v)).toBe(true);
+    for (const v of ["0.0.0", "0.9.0", "0.10.0-next.1", "1.0.0-0.0.0-x"])
+      expect(isNotRealVersion(v)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it("is released by its first version PR after npm's 0.0.0-stage too", async () => {
+    const pkgs = at("0.10.0");
+    const r = await releaseGroup(
+      pkgs,
+      "0.10.0",
+      changelogs("0.10.0", true),
+      npm(["0.0.0-placeholder.0", "0.0.0-stage"], "0.9.0"),
+    );
+    expect(r.notYetReleased).toEqual([]);
+    expect((await unpublished(r.group, async () => false)).map((p) => p.name)).toContain(NEW);
+  });
+
   it("never leaves out a package npm has released, even without a changelog entry", async () => {
     const pkgs = at("0.9.1");
     const r = await releaseGroup(pkgs, "0.9.1", () => undefined, npm(["0.9.0"], "0.9.0"));
diff --git a/scripts/release-plan.ts b/scripts/release-plan.ts
index 5aebde6d..7a1caf99 100644
--- a/scripts/release-plan.ts
+++ b/scripts/release-plan.ts
@@ -60,10 +60,15 @@ export async function npmVersions(name: string): Promise<string[]> {
 }
 
 /**
- * The deprecated placeholder an owner publishes by hand so that npm trusted publishing can be
- * set up for a new package (RFC-0046 §11a). It is never a release of the package.
+ * A `0.0.0-*` prerelease, which is never a release of a package. Two kinds exist on npm today:
+ * - the deprecated placeholder an owner publishes by hand so that npm trusted publishing can be
+ *   set up for a new package (`0.0.0-placeholder.0`, RFC-0046 §11a);
+ * - versions npm creates by itself around that first publish, such as `0.0.0-stage` from staged
+ *   publishing (seen on `@cloudhal/release-verify` on 2026-11-15).
+ * No Cloudhal release is ever `0.0.0-*`: the fixed group started at 0.1.0. A plain `0.0.0` is not
+ * matched.
  */
-export const isPlaceholderVersion = (v: string): boolean => v.startsWith("0.0.0-placeholder.");
+export const isNotRealVersion = (v: string): boolean => v.startsWith("0.0.0-");
 
 /** Whether a changelog has a `## <version>` section. */
 export const hasChangelogEntry = (text: string | undefined, version: string): boolean =>
@@ -81,7 +86,8 @@ export interface ReleaseGroup {
  * group in one PR and gets its first version in the next version PR. In between, `main` holds it
  * at the group's current version with no changelog entry for it. That version was never released
  * for this package and must not be published from `main` (#232). Such a package is one npm holds
- * no real version of (nothing, or only the placeholder) and whose changelog has no `## <version>`.
+ * no real version of (nothing, or only `0.0.0-*` prereleases such as the placeholder and npm's
+ * `0.0.0-stage`) and whose changelog has no `## <version>`.
  * Every package already released keeps being published as before.
  */
 export async function releaseGroup(
@@ -93,7 +99,7 @@ export async function releaseGroup(
   const notYetReleased: Pkg[] = [];
   for (const p of pkgs) {
     if (hasChangelogEntry(changelogOf(p), version)) continue;
-    const real = (await versionsOf(p.name)).filter((v) => !isPlaceholderVersion(v));
+    const real = (await versionsOf(p.name)).filter((v) => !isNotRealVersion(v));
     if (real.length === 0) notYetReleased.push(p);
   }
   return { group: pkgs.filter((p) => !notYetReleased.includes(p)), notYetReleased };